HISTORICAL BACKTEST · CLAVON
Clavon: We Would Have Said No — Yet Two Buyers Still Made More Than 20%
Clavon is a useful reminder that a careful buying rule will sometimes make us miss a winner. In this case, two exact launch units were above our maximum price, so we would not have bought them. Both later made strong gains.
1. The Simple Result
Clavon launched in December 2020 and sold very strongly. About 442 of its 640 units were taken up over the first weekend at an average of around S$1,640 psf.
Our historical price limit was more conservative.
For the exact units we tested, the buyers paid more than what we would have been comfortable paying. So our answer at the time would have been:
Do not buy at this price.
What happened later? Two of those buyers still made more than 20%.
2. What Buyers Were Looking At in 2020
Clavon is a 99-year leasehold project along Clementi Avenue 1 with 640 units.
Demand at launch was very strong. Around 70% of the project sold over the first weekend, with the average transaction price around S$1,640 psf.
That tells us buyers liked the project. But popularity alone does not decide whether we buy. We still ask whether the actual unit price gives us enough room for error.
3. Buyer One Paid S$1.037 Million
Unit #05-02 was a 678 sq ft unit bought on 12 December 2020 for S$1.037 million, or about S$1,529 psf.
Our historical maximum for a 678 sq ft unit was about S$984,000.
| Price Check | Amount | Our Decision |
|---|---|---|
| Our maximum price | ~S$984k | Maximum we would pay |
| Actual purchase | S$1.037m | Would not buy |
| Difference | ~S$53k above our limit | Too expensive for us |
4. What Happened to That Unit?
The exact same unit sold on 15 January 2024 for S$1.280 million.
| Bought For | Sold For | Time Held | Price Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| S$1.037m | S$1.280m | ~3.1 years | +23.4% |
So yes — we would have missed this winner.
5. Buyer Two Tells the Same Story
Unit #04-03 was a 764 sq ft unit bought on 12 December 2020 for S$1.159 million.
Our historical maximum for that size was about S$1.109 million.
The purchase was therefore around S$50,000 above our limit, so we would again have said no.
The exact same unit later sold on 10 May 2024 for S$1.414 million.
| Bought For | Sold For | Time Held | Price Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| S$1.159m | S$1.414m | ~3.4 years | +22.0% |
Again, the buyer did well even though the purchase was above our maximum price.
6. Does This Mean Our Price Limit Was Wrong?
No.
It means our rule is conservative.
A conservative buying rule is designed to protect us when things go wrong. The trade-off is that we will sometimes reject a property that later performs well.
Clavon is a good example of that trade-off.
A buying rule that never misses a winner is probably not protecting you from enough risk.
7. Why We Are Publishing This
It would be easy to publish only the projects where our model said buy and the price later went up.
That would make the backtest look better, but it would make it less useful.
Clavon should be published because it shows a genuine weakness of a conservative approach: we can miss good opportunities.
8. What We Learned
Strong demand can push prices higher than our comfort level. Clavon sold exceptionally well at launch, and that demand helped support later resale prices.
Our maximum price is not a prediction of how high prices can go. It is simply the most we are willing to pay while keeping a safety cushion.
We will miss some winners. Both exact Clavon units in this article were above our limit and later gained more than 20%.
We should not change the rules after seeing the result. Raising the maximum price now just to make these units qualify would make the backtest meaningless.
9. Final Result
OPPORTUNITY MISSED
We would have rejected these two exact Clavon units because they were above our historical maximum price.
Both buyers later made more than 20% within roughly 3–3.4 years. The correct conclusion is not that our model bought Clavon. The correct conclusion is that our conservative price rule would have missed two good purchases.
Published background sources
Business Times — Clavon launch-day sales
EdgeProp — Clavon launch weekend
Exact-unit transaction records were separately checked for this historical backtest. Transaction-analysis websites used for verification are not promoted here.
A good backtest must show the winners we missed too.
Clavon is not a model victory. It is evidence of the price we pay for being conservative. That is exactly why it belongs in the AskAnnaLee backtest library.