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Stirling Residences: Would Our Property Model Have Bought It?

Stirling Residences: Would Our Property Model Have Bought It?
We freeze the investment decision in 2018, apply the same AskAnnaLee Maximum Entry Price rule, then test genuine qualifying purchases against their exact subsequent sale outcomes.
This is a retrospective test of the AskAnnaLee property investment framework. It applies the frozen methodology to historical transactions using information that was available, or could reasonably have been known, at the original decision date. It does not represent an investment recommendation that AskAnnaLee actually published in 2018. Historical backtesting has inherent limitations and does not guarantee similar future results.
The project average failed the price test. Exact units did not.
Stirling Residences recorded a July 2018 median of about S$1,746 psf, above our frozen Maximum Entry Price of approximately S$1,623 psf. But exact launch units transacted below the ceiling.
Two qualifying units with matched exits subsequently gained about +5.95% and +28.51% over 3.2 and 4.2 years respectively.
1. The Question
If an investor had evaluated Stirling Residences in 2018, what price would have offered sufficient protection under the AskAnnaLee framework?
More importantly, could buyers actually transact below that level — and what happened to those qualifying transactions during the model's intended 3–5 year validation window?
2. What Buyers Knew Then
Stirling Residences was a 1,259-unit, 99-year leasehold development on Stirling Road, within walking distance of Queenstown MRT.
Logan Property and Nanshan Group had acquired the 227,220 sq ft site for approximately S$1.003 billion, or S$1,051 psf ppr. The tender attracted 18 bids, making the land price useful evidence of broad developer appetite rather than an isolated bid.
Contemporary reporting also showed limited nearby new-launch competition. Margaret Ville was selling at around S$1,880 psf, while Queens Peak was already substantially sold.
3. What the Model Would Have Seen
Positive Evidence
Queenstown location. Mature amenities, city-fringe positioning and proximity to Queenstown MRT supported a broad future resale pool.
Strong land-market participation. The site attracted 18 bids and crossed S$1 billion.
Limited nearby new-launch inventory. Contemporary evidence indicated relatively little competing fresh supply in the immediate neighbourhood.
What Required Caution
The headline launch price was high. A good Queenstown location did not justify buying near the project median automatically.
Large project size. With 1,259 units, future resale competition within the development itself mattered.
Exact price remained decisive. The model needed a unit-level screen rather than a project-wide BUY call.
4. The Maximum Entry Price
Applying the frozen AskAnnaLee methodology to evidence available at the 2018 decision date produced an intrinsic-value level of approximately S$1,785 psf before the framework's required valuation protection.
AskAnnaLee Historical Maximum Entry Price: approximately S$1,623 psf
This figure was not increased because Stirling Residences later appreciated.
5. Did Buyers Actually Have the Opportunity?
Yes. The project's July 2018 median of approximately S$1,746 psf failed the price test, but genuine individual transactions occurred below S$1,623 psf.
| Observed Transaction | Entry | Maximum | Entry Test |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1,055 sq ft unit, 5 Jul 2018 | ~S$1,586 psf | ~S$1,623 psf | PASS |
| 764 sq ft unit, 28 Oct 2018 | ~S$1,606 psf | ~S$1,623 psf | PASS |
| Project July median | ~S$1,746 psf | ~S$1,623 psf | FAIL |
These transactions demonstrate qualifying opportunities existed. They are not units that AskAnnaLee selected or recommended in 2018.
6. Exact Outcome #1 — The Stronger Observation
A 1,055 sq ft unit purchased on 5 July 2018 for approximately S$1.673 million, or about S$1,586 psf, subsequently sold on 9 September 2022 for S$2.150 million.
The holding period was approximately 4.2 years.
7. Exact Outcome #2 — The Threshold Test
A 764 sq ft unit purchased on 28 October 2018 for S$1.227 million, or approximately S$1,606 psf, sat only about 1.0% below the frozen Maximum Entry Price. It subsequently sold on 27 January 2022 for S$1.300 million.
The framework defines value preservation as appreciation of at least 5% over the realistic holding period. This transaction cleared the threshold — but only narrowly.
This borderline result is more useful than a spectacular winner: the unit barely qualified on entry price and barely cleared the model's minimum success threshold.
8. The Result
PASS
Two exact qualifying transactions were identified below the frozen Maximum Entry Price, and both produced at least 5% appreciation inside the 3–5 year validation window.
The correct historical interpretation is: Stirling Residences contained BUY opportunities below approximately S$1,623 psf.
9. What We Learned
The July median failed the model, yet exact launch units qualified.
Price dispersion within a launch can be economically meaningful.
The S$1,606 psf observation had only about 1% headroom and produced only 5.95% appreciation. We should not invent a new buffer because the result was close.
Queenstown's buyer pool and MRT access were positives, but the project median was still too expensive.
10. Methodology Note
This historical case uses the frozen AskAnnaLee Singapore Property Value-Preservation methodology. Entry decisions use information available at the historical decision date. Later resale outcomes are used only for validation and cannot alter the original Maximum Entry Price.
This analysis is a retrospective test of the AskAnnaLee property investment framework. It applies the framework to historical transactions using information that was available, or could reasonably have been known, at the original decision date. It does not represent an investment recommendation that AskAnnaLee actually published at that time. Historical backtesting has inherent limitations and does not guarantee similar prospective results.
EdgeProp, 29 Jun 2018 — land acquisition, project scale, Queenstown MRT proximity and nearby launch context.
EdgeProp — Logan Property bets big with Stirling Residences
The Business Times — July 2018 sales data showing 339 transactions at a median S$1,746 psf.
Business Times — July 2018 private home sales
PropertyNoob — exact sale and profitability records used for the matched historical observations.
PropertyNoob — Stirling Residences sales
PropertyNoob — Stirling Residences profitability
Why Stirling matters to the track record
It strengthens the lesson that a project's average launch price can hide investable exact-unit opportunities. Future backtests will continue using the same frozen rules whether the result is PASS, FAIL, Correct Rejection or Opportunity-Cost Rejection.
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✓ Price & comparables — how the asking price sits against relevant evidence.
✓ Value & risk — what deserves attention before committing capital.
✓ Financing & affordability — whether the purchase remains comfortable.
✓ Supply & exit demand — who may realistically buy from you later.
✓ Unit-type considerations — which characteristics deserve closer examination.
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