Independent, numbers-first analysis of Singapore new launches before the outcome is known. We test price, value, risk and exit so buyers can decide whether the numbers justify buying.
Every published AskAnnaLee new-launch review appears here automatically when it is assigned to the New Launch Analysis category.
ASKANNALEE · LIVE PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS Lucerne Grand: Doorstep MRT Is Rare — But How Much Should Buyers Pay for It? Lucerne Grand has a powerful everyday advantage: it is directly linked to Lakeside MRT, with shops and a supermarket planned below the homes. The...
ASKANNALEE · LIVE PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS Amberwood at Holland: Prime District 10 — But How Much Should Buyers Pay for the Address? Amberwood combines a low-rise District 10 setting, Methodist Girls' School within 1 km and the first-mover story of Holland Plain. Those...
ASKANNALEE · PRE-LAUNCH INVESTMENT REVIEW Thomson Reserve: MRT, Ai Tong and MacRitchie — Is This the Rare 2026 Launch Worth Paying Up For? Thomson Reserve combines several traits buyers normally have to choose between: an established District 20 neighbourhood, direct...
ASKANNALEE · LIVE PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS The Serra Residences: Freehold Novena, Cheap 2010 Land — Will Buyers Get the Benefit? The Serra Residences is a rare new freehold launch in Novena with only 133 homes, an established medical hub next door and a land cost locked...
ASKANNALEE · LIVE PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS Hudson Place Residences: Cheap Land, Strong One-North Demand — But Did Buyers Get the Discount? Hudson Place entered Media Circle with a much lower land cost than neighbouring Bloomsbury Residences and sold more than 60% of its...
ASKANNALEE · NEW LAUNCH INVESTMENT REVIEW Terra Hill: The Project Got Cheaper — Does That Make It a Better Buy? Terra Hill is a freehold District 5 development near Pasir Panjang MRT. What makes it especially interesting now is not simply the project itself, but the...
Verify the project, land, location, supply and transaction evidence before forming an investment view.
Compare asking PSF and total price with meaningful comparables, land economics and a disciplined value range.
Test financing, rental support, future supply, buyer affordability and who may realistically buy from you later.
Separate project quality from investment quality and conclude BUY, BUY SELECTIVELY, NEGOTIATE, WAIT or AVOID.
Current analyses are made before the outcome is known. Our separate historical backtest library applies frozen decision rules to earlier launches so live analysis and hindsight evidence do not get mixed.
Price is not value. Each report examines the project as an investment: what buyers are paying, what could go wrong, and who may buy from you later.
This project gives us a useful real-world lesson. Two exact units were comfortably below our maximum price and later made good gains. Another unit was just above our limit, so we would have rejected it — yet it also performed very well.
We found two exact 1,270 sq ft purchases below our maximum price of about S$1.842 million.
One later gained about 41.3% over 4.3 years. The other gained about 18.2% over 3.1 years.
Both comfortably passed our minimum 5% appreciation test.
The Florence Residences is a large 1,410-unit project in the Hougang/Kovan area. Historical launch research showed indicative pricing around S$1,400 psf, with published pricing later around S$1,450 psf.
For our backtest, the important question is not whether the development was popular. It is whether individual buyers could find units at prices that gave them enough room for mistakes or a slower market.
We do not need the cheapest condo. We need a sensible price for the particular unit we are buying.
For a 1,270 sq ft unit, our historical calculation put its value at about S$2.026 million.
We would not pay the full calculated value. After keeping our safety cushion, the most we would have paid was approximately:
S$1,841,675 for a 1,270 sq ft unit.
Put simply: below about S$1.842 million, we would consider buying. Above that, we would become more cautious.
Unit #03-12, measuring 1,270 sq ft, was bought on 11 May 2020 for S$1.762 million. That was about S$79,700 below our maximum price.
The exact same unit later sold on 23 August 2024 for S$2.490 million.
The owner held it for about 4.3 years, which sits comfortably inside our normal 3–5 year checking period.
Unit #10-12 was bought on 15 September 2019 for S$1.776 million. It was also below our S$1.842 million maximum.
The first sale by that original buyer was on 19 October 2022 for S$2.100 million.
The holding period was about 3.1 years. Again, this passed our minimum 5% test.
For these two exact purchases, yes.
| Unit | Purchase Price | Our Maximum | Later Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| #03-12 · 1,270 sq ft | S$1.762m | ~S$1.842m | +41.3% |
| #10-12 · 1,270 sq ft | S$1.776m | ~S$1.842m | +18.2% |
Both buyers paid below our limit, and both later made meaningful gains.
This is where the backtest becomes more useful.
A 1,389 sq ft unit, #14-62, was bought for S$2.017 million. Our maximum price for that size was about S$2.014 million.
The buyer therefore paid only about S$2,759 more than we were prepared to pay — roughly 0.14%.
Under our rules, we would have said no.
The exact same unit later sold for S$2.668 million after about 3.6 years, giving the buyer a gain of roughly 32.3%.
The other side of the story is equally important.
An exact 667 sq ft unit was bought for S$1.371 million. Our maximum for that size was only about S$967,000, so we would not have bought it.
About four years later it sold for S$1.270 million — a loss of roughly 7.4%.
So within the same project, paying well above our limit produced a poor outcome, while paying below our limit produced two good outcomes.
Not every rejected unit lost money. Two smaller units that were above our maximum later gained around 7.7% and 8.4%. Those buyers still made money, but the results were much weaker than our two qualifying 1,270 sq ft examples.
This is why the aim is not to predict every winner. The aim is to improve the odds of buying with enough room for error.
Two exact purchases below our historical maximum both produced gains above 5% within roughly 3–5 years.
At the same time, the model would have missed at least one excellent purchase that was only slightly above our price limit. We publish both results.
The Florence Residences shows why our decision must come down to the actual unit and the actual price. Two units were cheap enough for us. One excellent winner was just outside our limit. Another expensive unit later lost money. That is the full story.
Tell me the project, unit type, budget and objective you are considering. AskAnnaLee can provide additional buyer-focused information on comparisons, supply, financing, unit-type considerations and key risks — while keeping our proprietary entry-price and expected exit-price thresholds private.
✓ Price & comparables — how the asking price sits against relevant evidence.
✓ Value & risk — what deserves attention before committing capital.
✓ Financing & affordability — whether the purchase remains comfortable.
✓ Supply & exit demand — who may realistically buy from you later.
✓ Unit-type considerations — which characteristics deserve closer examination.
No obligation. No pressure to buy. Submit your details and the project you are considering.
Educational and analytical content only. Nothing on this website constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax or formal property valuation advice. Verify material facts, financing, taxes and legal obligations with the appropriate licensed professionals.